Sunday, October 6, 2013

Good days ahead for Indian economy?!?!?!

Doubt and surprise, symbolized by the symbols ? and !, will be anybody’s reaction to this headline, considering India’s low GDP, a weak Rupee, and a rising current account deficit (CAD). But the following points, presented in an analysis on NDTV Profit by Raghu Kumar, co-founder of the broking company RKSV, may remove your doubt. 
  1. The Indian stock market has outperformed the US stock market and those of BRICS countries. See how the stock index of these countries has appreciated over the past five years (2008-2013):
      • India     – 45.04%
      • USA      – 35.81%
      • Russia   – 35.02%
      • China    – 7.37%
      • Brazil    – 4.55%
  1. The BSE index for the Indian IT sector, which accounts for 25 per cent of India's exports, has appreciated a huge 38 per cent this year so far, an indicator that India's IT exports may rise in future. 
  2. With the recovery of US economy India will see more FDI flowing from the US investors and thus helping the govt meet its target of bringing the current account deficit below $70 billion (3.9 per cent of GDP).
  3. India’s annual GDP growth rate, which has declined from 9 per cent to 4.4 per cent over the past 5 years, is expected to rise to 5.6 per cent for 2013-14, according to IMF estimates if FDI inflows and IT exports increase.
Let's wait for the next few months to see whether's Kumar's analysis hits the bull's eye.  

Raghu Kumar’s article is available at the following link:

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